Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.016705 0.018914 0.021310 0.024100 0.027261 0.030733 0.034837
2025-08-24 0.013235 0.016279 0.019861 0.024391 0.029974 0.036636 0.045203
2025-08-31 0.011116 0.014466 0.018638 0.024220 0.031506 0.040711 0.053255
2025-09-07 0.009911 0.013510 0.018201 0.024776 0.033775 0.045691 0.062725
2025-09-14 0.008526 0.012093 0.016932 0.023989 0.034051 0.047926 0.068600
2025-09-21 0.007571 0.011128 0.016127 0.023683 0.034858 0.050839 0.075554
2025-09-28 0.006666 0.010119 0.015131 0.022959 0.034926 0.052619 0.080925
2025-10-05 0.006330 0.009905 0.015253 0.023864 0.037447 0.058165 0.092389
2025-10-12 0.005956 0.009586 0.015172 0.024426 0.039458 0.063064 0.103244
2025-10-19 0.005641 0.009323 0.015143 0.025046 0.041584 0.068282 0.115030
2025-10-26 0.005203 0.008818 0.014675 0.024898 0.042420 0.071449 0.123657
2025-11-02 0.004844 0.008408 0.014320 0.024893 0.043471 0.075023 0.133240
2025-11-09 0.004432 0.007877 0.013729 0.024451 0.043764 0.077389 0.141036
2025-11-16 0.004182 0.007608 0.013567 0.024746 0.045379 0.082192 0.153655
2025-11-23 0.003885 0.007226 0.013169 0.024572 0.046116 0.085462 0.163708
2025-11-30 0.003723 0.007079 0.013176 0.025137 0.048256 0.091455 0.179411
2025-12-07 0.003391 0.006579 0.012493 0.024338 0.047732 0.092393 0.185377
2025-12-14 0.003154 0.006242 0.012084 0.024027 0.048114 0.095074 0.194993
2025-12-21 0.002887 0.005824 0.011487 0.023292 0.047585 0.095912 0.200915
2025-12-28 0.002832 0.005824 0.011706 0.024210 0.050470 0.103785 0.222105
2026-01-04 0.002741 0.005743 0.011755 0.024781 0.052679 0.110451 0.241314
2026-01-11 0.002662 0.005678 0.011831 0.025410 0.055058 0.117649 0.262301
2026-01-18 0.002511 0.005451 0.011552 0.025260 0.055744 0.121302 0.275753